I use the somewhat disparaging term industrial football to describe a bland, standardized and mostly monotonous and predictable style of football, with little creativity, dynamism, diagonals, positional changes and surprises.
Meanwhile, practically all teams are defensively compact, well-organized and condense the spaces in front of and in the penalty area with a defensive block that is difficult to play against and overcome. I've finally found out who invented the defensive block :-)
Teams play the ball back and forth around the opponent's block and you wait until a creative player, an enabler on the wing gets the ball and pulls something out of the hat. This strategy is largely based on the individuality and strengths of the players.
Teams often lack surprises, diagonals and changes of position in the game.
Today we want to find teams and players who successfully use effective passing combinations with two or three players. I'm talking about the good old doublepass, overlap, underlap and third-man run attack. All of these variants pose difficulties for the opponent.
Of course, there are other ways to create danger in attack. We have chosen these pass combinations because you can recognize the patterns in the data and analyse them isolated.
Doublepass, overlap and underlap
Here are some examples of passing combinations with two players in the wing zones.
These passing combinations are very effective when building up play in your own half, but also in attack.
The overlap is generally less effective than the underlap. This is because the opponent has more time to adjust and shift. Underlaps are much more direct and attack the block from the inside.
Here are some great video examples:
Young Boys #SuperLeague - Jaouen Hadjam underlap
PSG #Ligue1 - Achraf Hakimi
Serbia #EURO2022 underlaps
Arsenal #PremierLeague double underlap
Underlap Marseille #Ligue1 De Zerbi
In this clip, I have also deliberately left the origin in. The defender's nonchalant “sole on the ball” for a few seconds is a De Zerbi trademark and is used to make the opponent impatient and lure them out of their zone so that spaces open up behind them.
Karlsruhe #2Bundesliga Overlap
SC Freiburg #Bundesliga under and overlap
Liverpool #PremierLeague Luis Diaz overlap
All of these passing combinations are difficult to defend because they involve angles, diagonals, progressions and position changes. They help to break through opposing defenses, create chances and make the game more dynamic.
Jogo Bonito. The combinations are primarily player-oriented. This means that one player triggers the action and little collective coordination/training is required. The pass and the subsequent run make the intention clear to the recipient of the pass.
As the central area is very dense, passing combinations on the sides are more ideal.
It is above all the progressive full- or wingbacks who understand the space in front of them even before they receive the ball. And then sprint boldly into the open space after a diagonal pass. In my mind's eye, I can see the irresistible rushes of Achraf Hakimi in action.
.
We will build an individual metric for these pass combinations. An exciting aspect of this metric is that it also indirectly reflects the running progression. If two passes are played consecutively in the forward direction and the first player receives the ball again, he must have gained space in the meantime. Although the running values are not available in the event data, we can evaluate some of them indirectly.
Data analysis doublepass, underlap and overlap
We do not use statistical data, but event data. Specialized companies categorize and quantify thousands of events per game, such as pass, duel, shot, dribble, header, etc.. The corresponding (x,y) coordinates and whether the action was successful are also recorded for each game event. Several thousand events are recorded per game. This event data is valuable for the clubs as, in addition to the quantitative aspect for each action, the space gained and importance of the action can also be included in the analysis.
We have searched the event data for pass combinations with the following pattern:
ABA Pass combination between two players. A passes to B and B passes to A again
Both passes must be played forwards
The total vertical space gained must be at least 10 meters
If the second pass ends in your own half, it must end in both wing zones to exclude center back progression without pression
Open-play game (no standard situations)
Delimitation: Since the event data does not include the running routes, we can only identify ABA pass combinations. All the pass combinations seen in the video above were ABA. Under/overlaps by third players (ABC sequence) cannot be identified with event data and are therefore not included in this analysis.
Bundesliga 2023-24 Teams
We are evaluating the previous season, as the sample size of the current season is still too small. Here is the volume leaderboard by team. Most successful progressive double pass, behind and in front ABA actions, Zones 1-3 denote build-up, middle and attacking zones.
An average of 4 events were found per Bundesliga 23-24 match. Experience shows that 4-man defensive chains naturally have the better spatial conditions to achieve high values. The values are not adjusted for ball possession.
Bundesliga 2023-24 Players
Premier League 2023-24
Here is the volume leaderboard by team. Most successful progressive double pass, behind and in front ABA actions. Zones 1-3 denote the build-up, middle and attacking zones.
Premier League 23-24 Player
The results are adjusted for 90 minutes. Of course, we find mainly full-backs at the top. Tom Cairney (Fulham) and Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City) are the midfielders with the highest scores,
Third-man run Attacks
In most cases, the team in possession of the ball tries to overcome the opponent's defensive block with a wing pendulum, to play around them. They shift from one side to the other, where the wingers with the strongest dribbling skills then look for the 1vs1. The problem is that a well-organized defence can shift faster than the team in possession can shift sides with the ball. As a result, the wingers are often doubled and a 1vs2 often develops on the wings instead of a 1vs1. Even Manchester City had great difficulties against a good and fast shifting block (e.g. Arsenal and Inter Milan).
The third-man run attack (play through the third man) is one of the most important and effective mechanisms for breaking through lines or the block.
A third-man run occurs when the team in possession of the ball lures an opponent to the ball before a third player runs into the area to receive the ball. Third man runs are therefore crucial to find a player in a better position who cannot be reached with a direct pass.
These attacks are coach-oriented. This means that three players have to move as a collective and time has to be spent on this in training to promote automatisms, timing and running routes. These moves include everything a footballer's heart desires. Passing combinations, diagonals, running routes, luring the opponent, passing into the deep. Jogo Bonito.
Third-man run combinations are also effective in build-up and transition play.
De Zerbi, Guardiola and co. send their regards. In this article, however, we have deliberately focused on passing combinations in attacking play.
Here are some great examples in the video.
Eintracht Frankfurt #Bundesliga - Omar Marmoush Third man run
Feyenoord #Eredivisie (Arne Slot) Various creative combinations
Arsenal #PremierLeague Third-man run attack
Bayern München #Bundesliga - Michael Olise Third-man run
Bayer Leverkusen ist unter Xabi Alonso das #Bundesliga Third-man run Benchmark Team
Nottingham Forest #PremierLeague Third-man run attack
Real Betis #LaLiga Third-man run
RC Lens #Ligue1 Third-man run
Third-man run attacks make every football fan's heart beat faster
Third-man run attacks are extremely effective and also beautiful to watch. They often elicit a murmur from the audience. However, third-man run attack combinations are rare. The very best teams “only” achieve 1-2 successful attacks per game. I would like to see much, much more of this.
Event data selection filter:
Pass sequence ABCA
Three successful passes in a row
The first pass must be played forward
The last pass must be played forward and end in the final third
The third pass must be played more than 5m deeper than the start of the second pass (exclude pure positional rotations without gaining space)
Open play game (no standard situations)
Delimitation: From the event data, we can only read out combinations in which the player who starts the attack gets the ball back (ABCA). Other attacks, such as the attack in the diagram above on the far right (non-detectable), with three players and other passing sequences, cannot be clearly detected. This would require tracking data.
Bundesliga 23-24 Teams Third-man run
The value Thirdman run Attacks shows the pure volume and is not adjusted for ball possession. It is important to note that it only includes successful attacks and attacks that end in the attacking third. Third-man combinations in midfield to break away from opponent pressure are not included.
Top teams play around 60 minutes per game against a deep block. Therefore, the ability to develop collective attacks (more than 2 players) should be given great importance. Teams with high scores often play attractive attacking football
However, only 0.4 events were found on average per 23-24 Bundesliga games.
Third-man run attacks are difficult to train and therefore also a quality feature for the coach
Bundesliga 23-24 Player Third-man run
Premier League 23-24 Teams Third-man run
The value Thirdman run Attacks shows the pure volume and is not adjusted for ball possession.
Premier League 23-24 Spieler Third-man run
Scouting with double-pass action data
In our article Moneyball: Exploiting potential with smart data scouting
we explain our complementary data scouting approach in detail. The algorithms we have developed are based on statistical data and have the following approaches:.
Position profiles with weighted metrics (IV Defensive, IV Progressive etc.)
P90 and possession adjustment (compare players fairly)
Similarity algorithms (find the young De Bruyne)
Peak Scouting (outlier/strength-oriented scouting, The Brighton way)
Data is not used to find the best player. Instead, it is used to quickly determine the 50 most suitable players out of 5,000, of which the best 10 are very likely to be among them (pre-scouting). This saves valuable time in scouting, as the scouts can concentrate on fewer players without having to sift through hundreds of players. Identifying the very best candidates is and remains the task of the scouts with their expertise and experience.
Once we have made our selection of 50 players, we can use event data for further consideration. For example, if we are now scouting full-backs or wingers, we can use this double pass and third-man run combination algorithm based on event data as an additional layer for the 50 pre-selected players.
This individual value represents a very specific skill that cannot be found in any data provider's tool. If it is important for the playing philosophy of a club, the club can use it to find players who are even better suited to its own playing philosophy.
On the other hand, you can also program the search pattern in the algorithm and then search the event data of the matches. That's how I found the patterns in the data with my algorithm and only looked at the scenes afterwards.
We can perform this type of pass analysis in practically all Tier 1 and Tier 2 leagues in Europe and for all major leagues on other continents.
The future of scouting belongs to those who recognize the interplay between technology and human expertise. It's not about a battle between man and machine, but about creating a harmonious complementary symphony where scouts use data analytics to redefine the standards for their excellence
And yes, our algorithm would have already found Kaoru Mitoma in the 2020 Kawasaki Frontale in the J1 League.
Alternative solutions in attack
There are several other ways to get a defense or a block into trouble. One effective attack is the cutback. Here is our article on this trend: Trend Analysis: Attacking with Cutbacks
Which zones in the attack have the best attacking effectiveness?
Everyone wants to win, but only the mediocre ones don't strive for a beautiful game.
The real discovery is not in finding new territory. But to see existing things with new eyes. Marcel Proust
In hindsight, we need the algorithm to quickly find the best attacks in all weekend games. For example, this third-man run combination from 19th Oct 2024
#SCFreiburg Third-man run attack vs FC Augsburg
And again regarding Achraf Hakimi. In the 23-24 season, he achieved the highest value of all top 5 league players with 48 double pass combinations.
Smart and successful use of data goes far beyond simply buying standardized tools. We have many years of experience in football coaching, game development, match analysis and data scouting. In addition we also bring expertise in business innovation, design thinking and product development to the table.
Did you like the quality of our contribution? Then reward us with your “credits” and like and share this post within your social network. Thank you very much.
You can subscribe to the blog to make sure you never miss a post.
footballytics – change the game
We support clubs, coaches, agencies and players with analysis and consulting services in the use and interpretation of data. To make better decisions in scouting, in match analysis and on the pitch.
www.footballytics.ch Data Analytics in Football - improve the game - change the ǝɯɐƃ
Share this post